The one player that Nottingham Forest need to sign in January to avoid relegation

This wasn’t how Nottingham Forest drew things up. Coming off the back of what felt like a breakthrough season, the club kept the majority of a strong side together and there seemed to be no earthly reason why they shouldn’t maintain their momentum from the 2024/25 season. Then the manager and owner fell out.

There’s little point raking back over the decision to fire Nuno Espirito Santo, or to appoint Ange Postecoglou, a head coach whose tactical philosophy could scarcely have been more different. However they got here, Forest are in a hole – and may need to make some big moves in January to dig themselves out.

There is every chance that by the time they’re next able to buy and sell players, Postecoglou will be gone. The start of his tenure has been painful and Evangelos Marinakis is not noted for his patience. Much remains unforeseeable. But when they do get to January, what changes need to be made to set the ship back on the right course?

Why Nottingham Forest’s defence has become a sudden problem

Last season, under Santo, Forest developed one of the toughest defences in the Premier League. They sat deep, were well-shielded by the midfield, and had players carefully selected to suit the system. Postecoglou, rather inevitably, has tried to rip it all up and start again.

Postecoglou has never been a manager who favours the low block. He now wants Forest to play higher up the pitch and has switched to a back three. The results have been rather disastrous.

There are three teams who have conceded more goals than Forest’s 12, but only Burnley have allowed their opponents to rack up a higher expected goals tally (12.4 in Forest’s case). There are plenty of problems up front, too, especially with Chris Wood misfiring since the start of the season, but Forest were never a team that scored in high volume. For their defensive solidity to have collapsed is perhaps more alarming.

Part of the problem is that several of Forest’s centre-backs simply aren’t suited to a high line. It’s a system which demands impeccable technique and defenders who are fast enough to get back to deal with balls over the top and into the space they leave behind them. Murillo fits the bill. Nikola Milenković and Morata? Rather less so.

It doesn’t help that Matz Sels is neither comfortable outside of his area nor accustomed to rushing out to handle the same direct balls that the players in front of him are not quick enough to cover. There is, currently, a large gap between what Postecoglou wants to do and what his players are really capable of.

There’s also a reasonable debate as to whether Forest have enough depth at centre-back for a back three to work in the long run. Youngster Jair is on the books, but 34-year-old Willy Boly hasn’t played a minute in the league this season and that’s about as far as depth goes.

If Postecoglou stays at Forest – or if another manager is brought in who wants to play with a high line or a back three – then they’re going to need to add some reinforcements in January, ideally players who speed and technique suits the system.

The Sunderland target who could be just what Forest need

If Forest themselves agree that a centre-back could be a necessity in January, then the gossip columns haven’t caught up yet. There’s only one name that has sprung up so far in that position, and he’s more of a future prospect than an instant starter – Palmeiras’ impressive 19-year-old defender Luiz Benedetti.

A few teams are interested in Benedetti, who combines height and aerial prowess with technical quality, respectable pace and an impressive positional sense for a player who only has eight senior appearances to his name. He seems set to head to one of Europe’s big leagues eventually and could go a very long way indeed, but it would be a brave Premier League manager who signed him to make an immediate impact. In fairness, one can hardly accuse Postecoglou of being gutless, whatever other criticisms may be levelled at him.

Another player whose name has cropped up on the rumour mill more generally, however, could perhaps fit the bill – Bologna’s Jhon Lucumí, a 27-year-old Colombia international who was pursued very publicly (and ultimately unsuccessfully) by Sunderland over the summer.

Bologna wanted to hang on to Lucumí and a price point was never agreed upon, but stories from Italy now suggest that with the defender keen to move and unwilling to sign a new contract, the Serie A side may be forced to change their stance.

Lucumí’s current deal expires in 2027, meaning that he will only have 18 months left on his contract when January rolls around. It’s a position that a Premier League side could take advantage of, and while Sunderland are at the front of the queue, the fact that they have signed several other centre-backs who are performing admirably thus far suggests that there could be elbow room for other suitors.

Forest have not been directly linked with Lucumí in the past but there is another wrinkle – Bologna supposedly identified Morata as a possible replacement for the Colombian in the event that he left this past summer. That could give Forest a bargaining chip to arrange a swap deal of some form if funds are short.

Lucumí would certainly offer the kind of qualities that Forest’s defence is lacking outside of Murillo. He has decent pace, is technically impressive and he’s press resistant and comfortable carrying the ball out of defence, another quality which helps in Postecoglou’s system. He doesn’t give away too much defensively, either – he’s excellent in one-on-one situations and while not a colossus in the air, at 6’1” he has the stature to do some of the more old-fashioned work required of centre-backs.

Whether Forest have Lucumí on their radar is unclear, but he fits the bill – or at least, he will if Postecoglou ends up staying at the City Ground. And right now, few would be on him last another two-and-a-half months before the transfer window opens up once more.