Why Panama may provide a much tougher test than England expect

The last time England faced Panama at a World Cup, they didn’t put up much of a fight. Harry Kane scored a hat-trick, Panama had no answers for the infamous ‘love train’ corner routine and while the game wasn’t quite as one-sided as the 6-1 scoreline suggested, England barely broke a sweat. It might not be so straightforward this time around.

Eight years after the Three Lions breezed past Panama in Nizhny Novgorod, everything looks a little different, even if six members of Panama’s starting line-up from 2018 are still in the squad. This is a Panamanian side which is more disciplined and much more experienced – and they face an England side that has struggled to break similar sides down.

Why Panama could present a tougher test than England expect

Panama’s once porous defence has tightened up considerably in the intervening years. This is a side which has played 18 matches in the last 12 months and only conceded more than one goal in two of them – one of which was against Brazil. Their defence is likely to be no less deep and disciplined than Ghana’s was when they frustrated England on Tuesday evening.

Panama only have pride to play for – FIFA’s decision to make head-to-head record the first tie-breaker means that they are guaranteed to finish at the bottom of Group L – so it’s reasonable to assume that they won’t be in any mood to make life easy for England by going on the attack from the offset. Given that England have found it difficult to deal with similar defensive systems under Thomas Tuchel, and it would be a pleasant surprise to see six goals again.

Not that Panama should be summarised as a solely defensive side. They defended deep and narrow during the first half against Croatia, for instance, but came out of their shell after conceding shortly before the hour mark and gave their more illustrious opponents a few scares.

They are unafraid to push their wing-backs upfield to create width and England will have to be wary on the counter-attack. Prior to this World Cup, Panama had scored in all but two of their matches since last June. They are not entirely lacking in firepower or the willingness to bring it to bear.

The likelihood is that Panama will set up to stymie England with a narrow and compact defence, but also that the game will open up if the Three Lions can score first. That would probably play into their hands, but to get to that stage they’ll have to do what they failed to do against Ghana and get on the scoresheet in the first place.

England’s failure to break down the Ghanaian low block wasn’t a one-off. They struggled against New Zealand and Uruguay in recent friendly matches when they set out to frustrate Tuchel’s side, and even made heavy weather of beating Andorra in qualifying when the minnows put 11 men behind the ball. When they’ve been denied space to exploit, England have been ineffectual.

They will be favourites against Panama, of course, even if this isn’t necessarily a tactical battle that they’re well positioned to win. There is an undeniable gulf in quality, and they will most likely dominate possession and territory for long periods. In any case, only a shockingly heavy defeat is likely to prevent England from reaching the round of 32 – the result probably won’t matter, but this is a vital opportunity for them to prove that they can, in fact, pick their way through a disciplined defence. Fail again, and opponents will be taking notes ahead of the knock-out rounds.

Will England rotate in the search of answers?

Tuchel has suggested that he will engage in some “moderate” rotation of his squad for England’s final group stage game, although the priority is likely to be preserving his squad’s fitness rather than looking for answers to any specific tactical quandaries.

Declan Rice and Reece James are both injury concerns heading into Saturday’s match at the MetLife Stadium, and while neither are believed to be in danger of missing the knock-out rounds they are both likely to get a break. Kobbie Mainoo seems likely to be in line to take Rice’s place if either his fitness or the threat of a one-game suspension should he collect a yellow card mean that he is rested.

Rice’s absence will rob England of their primary set-piece taker and a key creative force in midfield – the 10 shooting chances he has generated was the second highest total of any player in the tournament prior to Wednesday’s matches – and will likely only serve to make life even more difficult if Panama do throw up the barricades.

A lack of technical quality out wide has been a problem against low block so far, and Tuchel may be encouraged to see what Marcus Rashford can do in place of Anthony Gordon – a player who is exceptionally dangerous in space but who perhaps lacks the skill to reliably beat defenders one-on-one in tight spaces. Similarly, down the right, Noni Madueke can punish high lines but isn’t as effective when denied room to roam. His place in the starting line-up may depend on Bukayo Saka’s fitness.

Tuchel will also have to decide how many minutes he should risk Harry Kane for up front. England barely got the ball to him against Ghana – he had just 19 touches in the match, including the chance that he blazed over the bar in the second half. England must find ways to reach their most important player when he’s bogged down in traffic, but the Panama match also provides Tuchel with the opportunity to see how having Ollie Watkins or Ivan Toney in the line-up might influence the flow of play.

A comfortable win against Panama would likely settle a few nerves back home, but it would be optimistic to expect this to be easy. Saturday’s match will pitch England against a decent and very well-drilled opponent – a chance to try some fresh ideas and to dampen some doubts, but also a very genuine challenge.