Blackburn Rovers are taking a leap into the unknown with Valérien Ismaël - a manager of endless extremes

For the second successive year, Blackburn Rovers have been forced to appoint a new head coach in February. At first blush, the circumstances surrounding Valérien Ismaël’s appointment, which was announced on Wednesday, seem very different from those under which John Eustace arrived last year, but common themes occur - another manager has left amid concerns over behind-the-scenes stability and a lack of investment in the playing squad, and again a coach with a mixed track record arrives to take the reins.

A few short years ago, Ismaël was second-tier management’s hottest prospect. He took a Barnsley side with limited resources into the Championship play-offs in 2021 and was promptly snapped up by West Bromwich Albion, where he started off like a steam train – but now after three firings in his last three jobs, none of which lasted a full season, he arrives at Ewood Park with a reputation to rebuild and, more pressingly as far as the fans are concerned, a top-six berth to secure. Fail again, and he may find that his phone doesn’t ring the next time that someone needs a new manager.

Ismaël arrives at Ewood amid a career of extremes

Ismaël is nothing if not a manager who tends to succeed or fail in spectacular fashion. His first forays into management in Germany, where he spent much of his playing career, did not go especially well, with both Wolfsburg and Nürnberg dispensing with his services within six months. There was little suggestion of a top-level coach in the making.

But then came his second chance in Austria, where he led an unfancied LASK side into the last 32 of the Europa League, qualifying for the knockouts from a group which included Sporting and PSV Eindhoven and eventually losing to Manchester United. A club which had never even played in either of Europe’s two biggest competitions before were contenders on both a domestic and continental level during Ismaël’s tenure.

Then another left turn took him to Barnsley, who he took into the play-offs against all reasonable odds, eventually losing to Swansea City in the semi-finals. Then West Brom, where he didn’t lose a single game in his first two months. Then the wheels fell off.

Ismaël left West Brom in January 2022 after a run of one win in eight games. At Beşiktaş in Turkey things went even worse, with the Frenchman managing just eight wins in the 19 games he was given, an awful record for one of the Süper Lig’s traditional powerhouses. Then, more recently, he was at Watford, where he lasted 10 months before the axe fell after he won 12 of his 41 matches.

The poles of Ismaël’s career are some way apart. He has been a roaring success, a clear-cut failure, and rarely anything in between – nor has he ever remained with one club for long enough to establish a narrative about what he can achieve over the course of several campaigns. In other words, appointing Ismaël is a significant gamble.

It’s also a gamble which comes at a critical time for Blackburn. Since relegation to the second tier back in 2012, this is the best season they have had and they have every chance of making the play-offs for the first time – they lie sixth with 12 games left in what promises to be yet another painfully close-fought contest for a shot at promotion. There is, in short, very little room for error. The Barnsley version of Ismaël could be precisely what Blackburn need. The Beşiktaş edition would be a disaster.

There is, at least, one near-constant across Ismaël’s peripatetic career in management – he starts quickly. At the Hawthorns, he won six and drew four of his first 10 games and results didn’t turn until the winter. At Watford, he won his first game against QPR 4-0, was credited with getting a reputedly lazy and ill-disciplined dressing room’s act together in double-quick time, and led the club on a fine run in which they only lost two games between early October and Christmas. At LASK, he lost just one domestic match in his first four months in charge.

Ismaël has typically started strong before the wheels come off, with his one year at Barnsley the only time they remained firmly attached to their axle. The good news for Blackburn, at least, is that he only really needs to hold it together for 15 games – 12 until the end of the regular season, followed by three on the way to Wembley and, perhaps, the Premier League again. After that, anybody who claims to have a clear idea of what Ismaël can do in the long term is lying.

Why tactical intransigence has become Ismaël’s hallmark

Just to make it even harder to work out whether Ismaël is a smart appointment or a disaster waiting to happen, the 49-year-old has not only had a rollercoaster career but is also tactically flexible – up to a point.

Ismaël has played football in a variety of different ways, according to the tools he has had at his disposal. At Barnsley and to a lesser extent West Brom, he was noted for his aggressive, direct style of play coupled with a high press. At Watford, however, he was far more defensive and ran a low block, conceding the bulk of possession to the opposition.

That means guessing whether he will maintain the same approximate template that Eustace used so successfully before his sudden departure – a deep-set defence which prioritised fast counter-attacks after the ball was won – or go in an entirely different direction is impossible to guess. He will most likely do what he thinks best with the players he has access to.

But while he is happy to chop and change his approach according to the team he finds himself in charge of, he has also proven inflexible in-season, and has made a point of maintaining a consistency of style and system that borders on the bloody-minded.

At Barnsley, he said of their system that “you can take it or leave it, you can love it or you can hate it, but we stay true to ourselves and we have our identity and way to play football.” It worked out well there. At Watford and West Brom, however, fans were frustrated by his apparent intransigence as he refused to find a Plan B once results started going south. Game after game he would play the same players in the same way, and the fact that opponents appeared to have figured them out didn’t seem to factor in to his thinking.

His teams have tended to be strong defensively but goal-scoring has been the Achilles heel when things go wrong. That chimes with Blackburn’s own strengths and weaknesses this season – under Eustace they were rigid and rock solid at the back but lacked a creative spark or a regular goalscorer. Perhaps, in that regard, Ismaël at least overlaps with his new charges rather nicely.

He also has a reputation as a tough-talking disciplinarian who refuses to tolerate lax discipline and who won’t allow his squad to slack off, broadly an admirable trait but one which can rub some people up the wrong way. Between his time as a coach in Germany and his appointment by LASK, he took a job in Greece with Apollon Smyrnis and lasted just one game before he fell out with the club president and was sacked.

Hopefully, he won’t have too many problems on that front at Ewood Park. The squad may lack a certain degree of flair and technical quality but its grittiness is beyond reproach – and it’s tough to get involved in arguments with owners who aren’t even present. The owners haven’t been seen in Blackburn for a decade now, and Eustace reportedly never spoke to them directly. Everything is done through proxies.

The long and short of it is that tossing a coin is as reliable a way of predicting Ismaël’s success or failure at Blackburn as looking through his managerial history looking for signs as to how he will approach the next two months – and the long view is obscured by a chaotically-run club where contract uncertainty, staff churn and a lack of investment cause constant issues. If everything goes horribly wrong over the coming years, it will more likely be due to the boardroom than the manager.

But Ismaël does, at least, tend to do well in a sprint, and that’s precisely what Blackburn face now. Make it to Wembley, and book an unexpected ticket to the top flight, and the club’s financial and footballing situation could change dramatically for years to come. The fact that Ismaël rarely seems to last long in the marathons might not matter.