The stats which prove that Burnley are in big trouble – unless they do something drastic

Most newly-promoted side find it tough going in the Premier League, and this isn’t exactly Burnley’s first rodeo – but after their 3-2 defeat to Fulham on Saturday, they have now lost seven consecutive matches, and only a dire Wolves side stand between them and the very foot of the table.

Burnley were, perhaps, a little unfortunate to lose to Fulham. It was certainly one of their better recent performances and the final score could be argued as an unfair reflection of the flow of the game as a whole. But beneath the veneer of an improved performance, there are a worrying number of statistical red flags being waved in Scott Parker’s face. So is it time for Burnley to do something drastic to ensure their survival?

The stats which show that Burnley are in deep danger of relegation

The underlying numbers behind that 3-2 defeat to Fulham didn’t make bad reading. Burnley had far more efforts on goal than their opposition, they engineered the higher xG total, and had more possession and territory. They were, in many ways, the better team – and teams that play like that will usually win matches sooner or later.

Unfortunately, that level of performance compared to their opponents on the day was an outlier. It was only the third time in 16 Premier League matches this season that they have had the edge in possession or expected goals. Game after game, they are being outclassed.

Nor have many of their games been close, even if the final result suggested they might have been. Burnley’s statistical output has, in fact, been even worse than their actual results.

The Clarets have the third lowest total xG in the Premier League (behind only Wolves and Sunderland, who have an impressive defence to make up for their attacking failings) and by far the worst defence in the division in terms of expected goals allowed. They also have the lowest average possession of any team.

A simplistic but not entirely inaccurate way of looking at the picture painted by the statistics is that Burnley have the worst defence in the top flight, the worst midfield, and one of the worst attacks. It’s certainly not a recipe for a successful battle against relegation.

For the first 10 matches of the season, things didn’t look too bleak. Burnley won three games and drew against Nottingham Forest, and all six of their defeats were against teams with European or title ambitions, all of them eminently forgivable. But they were, in truth, outplayed by Leeds and Wolves even in victory, and the luck that kept the bigger picture looking reasonably rosy has since run out.

They may have edged the flow of the game at home to Fulham but they were comfortably second best against teams like West Ham and Brentford, and are now losing games they need to take at least the odd point from – and suddenly they are six points away from safety. They need to start winning quickly, or it’s all going to look a little grim for them. But will they even have the chance to turn things around in January?

Can Scott Parker fix Burnley this January - or does something have to give?

The obvious solution to Burnley’s problems is to find new players in January – players who can do the defensive work that isn’t being done now, score the chances that are being missed and provide the platform for possession that they so often lack. The slight issue is that Burnley may not have much money to spend.

Burnley’s financial position isn’t particularly good, at least in relation to the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules which still apply for the 2025/26 season even after clubs voted to replace them next summer.

The club came into the current season needing to post a profit for the first time in several years to avoid a points deduction, and while they are not believed to be in danger of such punishment, especially after the sale of James Trafford to Manchester City, they are unlikely to have a significant amount of room to manoeuvre this winter. Loans and bargains will probably be the best that they can do.

In short, there is little prospect for a squad overhaul. That means that something else will need to give – and in such circumstances, it’s challenging to find a solution other than moving on from Scott Parker and giving someone else a chance.

Parker did little wrong in getting Burnley promoted in his first season but he has never convinced as a coach at the Premier League level, and his teams have often been particularly weak at the back.

Even last season, when Burnley were breaking defensive records in the Championship on their way to promotion, there was a large extent to which that was a result of Trafford’s excellence rather than Parker’s tactics or coaching. Burnley may only have conceded 16 goals in the entire league season, but they allowed a total xG of 39.1. That’s still good, by any standards, but the truth was that a bit of luck and a brilliant goalkeeper masked the fact that their defence was not as remarkable as it appeared to be on the surface. That reality is being exposed rather brutally in the Premier League.

Not that it’s just the defence which needs working on. There is currently no area of the pitch in which Burnley are performing like anything other than a team that will get relegated. Under such circumstances, something has to change. As that probably won’t be the playing staff, perhaps it’s time to start weighing up alternatives to Parker.

Perhaps the squad isn’t good enough and no manager could keep them up, no matter how much defensive acumen and tactical flair they brought to Turf Moor. It may not really be Parker’s fault at all – but it looks like it’s either time to make a change in the dugout or accept Burnley’s fate.