Forget José Mourinho – Leeds United's manager decision should be obvious amid Farke sack claims

The champagne had barely stopped bubbling after Leeds United’s 6-0 win over Stoke City sealed automatic promotion back to the Premier League when the stories about Daniel Farke’s future as manager started to drop – and now, before Farke has even been given the grace to take charge of another game, the rumour mill has started to churn out seemingly improbable ideas as to who might take over.

It isn’t quite clear where the story linking Leeds with a move for José Mourinho started, but it’s spread fast. The wildly successful and unceasingly controversial coach is widely expected to leave Fenerbahçe at the end of the season, but taking charge of a freshly-promoted side would be a new experience for him.

But would swapping Farke – who twice failed to keep Norwich City in the top flight – for a Champions League-winning coach really change what Leeds could achieve next season? Or are Leeds’ American owners looking at the wrong data when they consider whether to sack the manager who just took them back up?

Why José Mourinho probably won’t be the next Leeds United manager

Whatever the genesis of the rumour, comments made by Mourinho earlier in the season – long before the Leeds job looked set to become vacant – were used as fuel for the fire.

“The best thing I have to do is when I leave Fener is that I go to a club that doesn’t play in UEFA competition," he had said. “So a club at the bottom in England who needs a coach in two years, I'm ready to go.”

Unusually for Mourinho, however, he was ready to backtrack quite quickly, describing the comments as “a joke” and adding that he was “not going to fight relegation – it’s too hard”.

In short, a couple of chance comments and some pundits throwing the Portuguese manager’s name about does not equate to a tangible link to the Leeds gig. The owners may well dispense with Farke, and they may even want Mourinho, but there is little solid reason to believe that a manager who has always chased trophies would be willing to take on a relegation battle.

And whatever Leeds do this summer, it is likely to be a relegation battle. The last six teams to be promoted from the Championship have come crashing straight back down, breaking records for lowest collective points totals along the way. The gap between the top two tiers of the English football is a yawning chasm, and even getting every appointment and transfer right over the coming months may not be enough.

In short, while Leeds’ history and the size of its fan base make them an easier sell to prospective coaches than most promoted teams, they still offer an uphill battle for the immediate future – and Mourinho has never offered any indications that he wants to try the managerial equivalent of proving that he can do it on a wet Wednesday night at Stoke.

Of course, there will be alternatives. If Farke does get fired, then someone will have to come in, and it may well be a bigger name with an impressive track record in top-level football. But would a first-rate coach really guarantee success under the circumstances?

Why firing Daniel Farke probably isn’t the answer for Leeds

The logic behind 49ers Enterprises’ thought process seems to be that while Farke has an admirable record in the Championship, he has been given two swings at the Premier League and missed badly both times.

In his first top-flight campaign with Norwich, the Canaries finished rock bottom and never seriously looked like staying up at any stage of the season. The second time, a year later, Farke was fired in November after presiding over 15 consecutive defeats in the top tier.

Norwich, of course, went on to finish dead last in the 2021/22 season, just as they had done in 2019/20. Farke’s management was one common denominator – but there was another, and it’s one which connects almost all of the teams who have been relegated in the past two years.

When Norwich went up in 2019, they spent the sum total of just £7.5m on new players – and half of that was on left-back Sam McCallum, who didn’t play a single game. Two years later, they spent rather more (reportedly a little over £50m), but didn’t spend very well. Ben Gibson, Dimitrios Giannoulis, Milot Rashica and Pierre Lees-Melou were among the multi-million pound arrivals who struggled to make a mark.

Of the six newly-promoted sides to be immediately relegated over the past two seasons, five of them were in the bottom three teams in the Premier League for wage spending for that season – only Leicester City break that mould.

Ipswich Town spent a fair amount of cash in transfers this summer but still had a wage bill which was added up to barely a fraction of the amount being paid out by teams above them in the table, which is perhaps unsurprising given that they had only just come up from League One. They had to spend more to keep up, and still couldn’t.

In short, the common denominator isn’t necessarily the quality of the manager so much as the resources at their disposal. Which isn’t to say that Farke didn’t make mistakes with Norwich, or that coaches like Russell Martin and Ruud van Nistelrooy lie blameless – but just look at Farke’s record. When he coaches a team which has financial parity (or an advantage) over his immediate rivals, he wins entire leagues. When he has to play at a massive economic disadvantage, he loses. Same as Martin, Van Nistelrooy, Kieran McKenna and may more before him.

Perhaps Leeds can exchange Farke for a better manager, someone who makes better use of his players or who understands how to eke out results in the top flight, but it’s only likely to matter if the club spend both big and smart.

The best team in the Championship right now is a long way behind even the most modest Premier League team, and closing that gap requires pinpoint scouting, intelligent use of funds, and the willingness to both turn the squad over ruthlessly while maintaining dressing room cohesion. No wonder so few sides can make it work these days.

At least, in even having a conversation about firing Farke, the ownership are demonstrating the requisite ruthlessness – but perhaps they should aim it in a different direction. If Farke has the players on side, then sacking him seems unlikely to change anything, especially if a certain Mr. Mourinho isn’t available…