Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 21: Why you shouldn't captain Salah as Liverpool face Nottingham Forest

The FA Cup Third Round is in the books and that means that it’s time for the return of Fantasy Premier League – and it’s a swift return, too, with games kicking off on Tuesday evening. That will probably catch a few managers out, but not our resident FPL expert, who’s back with his regular hints and tips column ahead of Gameweek 21.

This week, he digs into the numbers to debate how literally he needs to take his own advice to simply always captain Mohamed Salah, wonders whether Erling Haaland is officially back in business and much more besides – but before we hand over, do consider yourself formally reminded that you need to make all your moves by 18:00 GMT on Tuesday 14 January. Don’t miss it!

Should you really always captain Salah?

Ahead of the last gameweek, I offered up a few New Year’s resolutions to help tighten up our gameplay in the FPL over the coming year, and the very first piece of advice I gave you (and myself!) was simple – always captain Mohamed Salah. But just how literally should I take my own advice? This week’s fixtures put my theory to the test.

The logic behind the ‘always skipper Salah’ mantra is straightforward – when a player as good as Salah is on such exceptional form and on course to smash FPL points scoring records, he’s more likely to rack up the points than anyone else even when they have seemingly straightforward fixtures. In other words, there’s a reason that Salah has more than 50 points more to his name than any other player, don’t overthink it.

Ultimately, that isn’t just a ‘common sense’ decision, but one rooted in the stats and raw data – Salah is scoring more goals than anybody else in the Premier League and setting more up than anybody else by a country mile. He is, right now, the undisputed best player in the division, for Fantasy and real-life purposes. But does that mean that he’s odds on to be the top scoring player every single week? Probably not. So how do we identify when to look elsewhere?

This week’s fixtures are ideal for answering that question. Liverpool are away to Nottingham Forest, one of the best defensive teams in the division and a side who have already beaten the league leaders on their own turf this season, keeping Salah and his comrades quiet into the bargain.

Forest allowed just 0.94xG that game, and in the process of keeping four consecutive clean sheets and winning six straight Premier League matches, have allowed exactly one expected goal per match. They are in better form than any other team in the league. Liverpool, meanwhile, have been just a little below par over the last few games even if Salah himself hasn’t skipped a beat. If ever the league leaders are going to stumble, it’s this week.

On the other hand, Salah’s personal stats continue to be exceptional. Over his last five games, he’s averaging 1.76 expected goals and assists, and that’s not even factoring in the fact that FPL are rather more generous with their definition of an assist than the statisticians are. That’s pretty remarkable and a good argument for handing him the armband.

In other words, to justify not taking the odds on doubling up on Salah requires some really solid justification. Cole Palmer against Bournemouth simply doesn’t cut it – Chelsea’s form is poor of all a sudden, Bournemouth don’t concede many, and Palmer is averaging just 0.54xGA over the same five-match time frame. It may be an ‘easier fixture’ than Forest away, but the odds are that Salah will outperform his Chelsea counterpart this week.

That doesn’t mean that the decision is made, however. If what we need is a team on better form than Liverpool, playing against softer opposition, and a player whose personal form is at least on a par with Salah’s then there is one sensible option – Alexander Isak. Here’s where I think I may be ignoring my own New Year’s resolution just two weeks into January. That’s traditional, if nothing else, and at least it lasted longer than my gym membership.

Newcastle United are on a five-match winning streak in the league, have scored 15 goals in that time frame, and Isak himself is averaging 1.4xGA over those five matches. That’s a little below Salah, and strikers get one point less per goal, but it’s still exceptional.

I’ll spare you the maths, but breaking it down between expected goals and assists, Isak is averaging 7.4 points per game before bonus points, while Salah is averaging just over 7.7. That doesn’t factor in the increased likelihood of assist points for both players or, which probably favours Salah slightly, or clean sheet points, and wingers tend to fare better on bonus points than strikers, but at best you would say that Salah is trending to score one point or so more than Isak over an average game right now.

Is Forest away an average game? No. I don’t have a mathematical formula for figuring out how many points a tougher or easier fixture is worth, but Newcastle are home to a Wolves side who ship quite a few and are battling against relegation. If ever the scales were tipped more than a point in Isak’s favour, it’s now. Next week, Salah is away to Brentford and I’d expect the scales to tip his way again despite Brentford’s generally strong home form and the fact that Cole Palmer has the same fixture Isak does this time around. It will take exceptional statistical circumstances for me not to hand Salah the armband – but Gameweek 21 looks like just that week.

Is Haaland worth buying once more?

The other big question is whether Erling Haaland is finally worth considering once more given that Manchester City finally seem to be putting some ominous results together and he just bagged a brace against West Ham United. The kraken seems to be stirring, and that should put FPL managers on alert.

Haaland is still incredibly expensive but as we know from the last two seasons, when he’s doing his thing he’s pretty much a must have, and I’d probably back him to outscore Palmer if he hits his stride again. It was always likely to be the case that his downturn was temporary and that Pep Guardiola would find a way to start winning again – his City sides have almost always improved noticeably around January – but are we ready to start re-signing Haaland before his price surges?

Games against Brentford and Ipswich Town (both away) could be lucrative, but I’m holding my powder for now. Firstly, one good game doesn’t necessarily guarantee that his touch has returned – more worryingly, however, is the run of fixtures that City face from GW23 onwards, when they face six consecutive top four contenders. Perhaps that’s being generous to Tottenham Hotspur right now, but they do have a pretty great record against City, too.

Given how hard it is to construct a sensible team which contains Salah (essential), Haaland and Palmer right now, I’m still steering clear until he’s proven to be back to his very best. I also think that Isak’s form means that a forward line of him, João Pedro and Chris Wood is probably just better than one which includes Haaland at the cost of points elsewhere. I apologise to everyone who followed my advice of signing Nicolas Jackson a few weeks ago, by the way. I seem to have cursed him to revert to his early 2023/24 edition.

That’s all for this week – best of luck and may all those of you who don’t captain Salah be rewarded. Just don’t make a habit of it…