Can Liverpool qualify for the Champions League? Premier League final day permutations explained

The final day of a long Premier League season is upon us and while the title may already have been decided, there’s still plenty to play for – not least the final Champions League qualifying places, with Liverpool, Bournemouth and Brighton & Hove Albion all still able to book a place in Europe’s biggest club competition next season.

Below, we’ve explained how European qualification works on the final day, what Liverpool and their rivals need to make it into the Champions League, and how the remaining continental spots will be distributed come the end of the campaign, with teams such as Chelsea, Sunderland and Newcastle all in the hunt for Europa League and Conference League places.

What Liverpool need to do to qualify for the Champions League

Four Champions League places have already been determined: Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United will qualify via their league placings, while Aston Villa are also guaranteed their spot and will make it either as Europa League champions or through a top four finish.

Thanks to UEFA’s European Performance Spots (EPS), the Premier League also gets a fifth guaranteed qualifier for the Champions League after England finished as one of the two countries with the best overall performance in this year’s continental competitions – Spain were the other to get an extra place next season.

That means that the top five will definitely be playing Champions League football next season – and thus Liverpool only need a point against Brentford on Sunday to guarantee that they will finish at least fifth and thus return to Europe’s top table. They are current three points ahead of sixth-placed Bournemouth, so avoiding defeat will be sufficient.

Should Liverpool lose, however, then a Bournemouth win would see the two sides finish level on points. Liverpool currently have the goal difference advantage with a total of +10 compared to Bournemouth’s +4, so the only way Liverpool can miss out on qualification is if they lose to Brentford, Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest, and there’s at least a six-goal swing in goal difference.

Liverpool have the advantage on goals scored too (by five) so unless there’s an astonishing final score at the City Ground on Sunday, it’s more realistically a seven-goal swing that’s required.

Can Bournemouth & Brighton still qualify for the Champions League?

Yes. Even if Bournemouth don’t manage the improbable feat of overhauling Liverpool, they can still potentially qualify for the Champions League in sixth place – as could Brighton. They will, however, need a favour from other sides.

Qualification will go down to sixth place if – and only if – Aston Villa finish fifth. That’s because of the way that UEFA determines how teams who qualify through multiple paths are deemed to have made it into the Champions League.

If they finish in the top four, then Villa are judged to have qualified via league placement, with the Europa League winners’ spot passing to the team with the best UEFA coefficient score who would otherwise have to go through the qualifying rounds – that’s Portuguese league runners-up Sporting. In this case, the EPS place would pass to fifth and that would be the end of it.

If Villa finish fifth, however, they qualify as Europa League winners because that gets priority over qualifying via an EPS place. That means that the EPS place – which can’t be removed – skips fifth and passes down to sixth.

For Aston Villa to finish fifth, they would have to lose to Manchester City at the Etihad while Liverpool would need to defeat Brentford. If that happens, then sixth place will be in the Champions League.

Bournemouth currently occupy sixth position and would seal it with a point against Nottingham Forest. Brighton can, however, overtake them if they beat Manchester United at home and the Cherries lose. The two sides would then finish level on points, and Brighton have the superior goal difference.

How will the rest of the European places be decided?

Regardless of whether five or six teams qualify for the Champions League, the top eight will qualify for European competition. Which competitions they will be involved in could vary, however.

UEFA’s rules mean that if five teams make the Champions League, then fifth and sixth will play in the Europa League while eighth will make it to the Conference League. If a sixth team qualifies for the Champions League, however, then only the team finishing seventh will be in the Europa League next year.

That team could be joined in the Europa League by Crystal Palace if they defeat Rayo Vallecano in the Conference League final next Wednesday, but the result of that game won’t affect who qualifies for European competition. There are no circumstances under which more than one English team can qualify for the Conference League.

As it stands, Bournemouth, Brighton and Chelsea all occupy what will be guaranteed European places of some type – but Brentford and Sunderland can still finish as high as seventh with final weekend wins. Sunderland and Chelsea play on Sunday in what could prove to be a straight shoot-out for a European place.

Everton, Newcastle and Fulham – the latter pair play each other on the last day of the season - could theoretically finish as high as eighth, but would all need a massive swing in goal difference to leapfrog Chelsea, who currently sit in eighth place.

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