The world-class £30m man that could help Manchester City move on from one of their greats
Manchester City could be about to lose one of their stalwarts this summer - but do they have the right replacement lined up?
When Manchester City fans were celebrating their fourth consecutive Premier League title just a couple of weeks ago, it’s unlikely that they would have thought it may also be the last time that they would see Ederson in sky blue – but that’s become a real possibility with reports linking him with a move to Saudi Arabia this summer. Fortunately, there are also rumours that the club have an enticing replacement lined up.
The Sun are among the outlets claiming that should Ederson, who has been the undisputed number one since arriving at the Etihad back in 2017 and won 13 major trophies with the club, end up leaving then City will pursue a bid for AC Milan’s Mike Maignan – the first-choice goalkeeper for France who drew praise for his superb showings in the course of winning the Scudetto in 2022.
Maignan has been delaying the signing of a contact which would extend his stay in Milan since the winter and if the club don’t believe they can persuade him to pen a new deal then now would be the time to move on, when his current contract still has two years left to run. The Sun believe he would be available for around £30m should it come to it. But would he be better than Ederson (who would likely fetch a similar amount should he leave), and is this a move worth pursuing? Or should City look to keep the status quo going.
Maignan was unquestionably exceptional when Milan won the Italian title two years ago, with a massive 82.2% save percentage and just 21 goals conceded in 32 matches – but he hasn’t quite hit the same heights since. His save percentage plummeted below 70% in the 2022/23 campaign and while it recovered considerably this year to 77.5% (better than any stopper in the Premier League managed), there are some caveats.
By measuring his saves against his opponents’ xG, he actually conceded around four goals more than he should have done on average – implying a weak performance despite making a very high volume of stops. Ederson, by comparison, prevented at least one goal more than he would be expected to, despite having a rather lower save percentage.
By those measures, Ederson has only had one ‘bad’ year for the club since joining – somewhat ironically the treble-winning campaign of last season – and it’s hard to find too many numbers which suggest that Maignan actually is better than the Brazilian. Not that there’s much wrong with the Frenchman’s ability at handling crosses or his work outside of the box, but Ederson edges him out by almost every metric.
Of course, things aren’t so straightforward as all that. For starters, Maignan is two years younger than Ederson, and therefore could well have a longer peak. Given that they’re both highly effective goalkeepers, a trade which would, on paper, add a couple of seasons to the longevity the squad enjoys in a position without losing any money makes a great deal of sense.
It also seems likely that Maignan would be a natural fit for Pep Guardiola’s system – like Ederson, he’s very happy getting out of his box to deal with direct passes and is comfortable with the ball at his feet. He also has one of the same weaknesses, in that his is relatively short by goalkeeping standards at 6’1” and can’t match the reach of some other stoppers, but that issue hasn’t exactly prevented him from reaching the top of the profession.
Over recent years, City have been less than sentimental about their veteran players. Players like Riyad Mahrez, Aymeric Laporte and Raheem Sterling were moved on before they passed their respective peaks, not after – and the same process may be playing out with Ederson and even Kevin de Bruyne, who is also reported to be the subject of Saudi transfer interest. It’s helped to make sure that they get top dollar for their best players and aren’t saddled with depreciating assets whose careers are on the downswing, and even if it may be rather cold-hearted, it’s helped to keep the team at its peak and made sure there are no passengers. Ederson isn’t there yet, by any means, and 30 is hardly ancient by goalkeeping standards, but the same cold logic could be in play.
In the short term, moving from Ederson to Maignan is unlikely to change much. They have a similar playing profile, similar strengths and weaknesses, and have both, at their best, been able to make a big difference to title-winning teams. The question is whether those couple of extra years make enough of a difference to take what would, at the end of the day, be at least a little bit of a gamble. It would certainly be City’s way to do just that.