Should you triple captain Man City's Erling Haaland against Burnley? - FPL dilemma solved

While it might be a stretch to say that Manchester City are back to their best, there’s no arguing with Erling Haaland’s form – six goals in the Premier League already, and his 46 points make him the leading scorer in the Fantasy Premier League as well.

As such, there are a lot of FPL players eyeballing City’s fixture against Burnley this weekend and wondering whether it’s time to pull the trigger on a triple captain – but is that the right play, or does it make more sense to hold off for now?

Should you triple captain Erling Haaland in the FPL this weekend?

In previous years, it was almost always wiser to save the triple captain chip until the second half of the season, when double gameweeks would offer opportunities to score extra points – but now, with an extra triple captain chip which must be used in the first half of the season, it’s all about finding a single gameweek with high potential rewards. That could easily be Haaland this weekend.

Fears that Haaland may have been injured after he was substituted with back pain in the 1-1 draw against Arsenal have also been dispelled. Pep Guardiola told the press on Friday that Haaland was “ready to go” and there is no reason to believe that the Norwegian will have a diminished role at the Etihad.

Haaland’s form doesn’t appear to be ‘luck’, either. Haaland’s six league goals have come from 6.3xG, which is more than double the total expected goals of any other player in the top flight – and Manchester City, with 9.4xG, have created more and better opportunities than any teams apart from their neighbours United.

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In other words, City are creating chances at a very high rate and Haaland is the man chiefly responsible. He’s scoring at the speed you’d expect, meaning that he isn’t waving any red flags around about his personal form. This is a very good player, on a very good team, who’s scoring more than anyone else.

That’s a good reason to drop the triple captain chip on its own, of course, but the opposition being relatively weak doesn’t hurt either. Burnley may have only conceded a relatively modest eight goals so far this season, but they seem to be rather lucky in that regard given that they’ve allowed 10.3xG’s worth of chances. That’s more than any other team in the Premier League. They’ve also allowed a massive 93 efforts on goal, 24 more than any other side.

In short, this is one of the best players, on something like his best form, up against what seems to be the worst defence in the division, at home. It’s hard to come up with an argument against making him your triple captain this weekend based on that alone. But will there be a better opportunity if we remain patient?

Are there better times to use the triple captain chip?

There are, based on form and the stats, only really two good reasons not to make Haaland your triple captain this week – finding a better fixture later on, or not having Haaland in your team in the first place.

The latter remains somewhat defensible, even if he’s lived up to his hefty price tag so far, but City have relatively soft fixtures coming up between now and Gameweek 11 when they face Liverpool and it’s very hard to ignore the Norwegian’s form. If you don’t have him and can get him, you most likely should.

Given Burnley’s struggles, it’s also hard to find better fixtures to target in the first half of the season. Of the other teams at the bottom of the pile for goals and xG conceded, City only have West Ham left to play, at home on 20 December. By that point, Haaland’s form could have fallen away, he could be injured, and the Hammers might have a new head coach. A lot can change.

Wolves and Brentford are also teams to rarget on current form, but which player are you picking that goes up against them that is more likely to score than Haaland? Mohammed Salah could get back to his best in time to play Brentford in Gameweek 9 but he’s been slow out of the traps and that’s an away game. Arsenal play Brentford and Wolves at home in December, so taking a punt on Bukayo Saka or Viktor Gyökeres is reasonable but another gamble. Cole Palmer is injured and may not be back for a while.

In short, there are no other fixtures which see quite such a high-end player facing off against quite such a bad defence which between now and the halfway point of the season, and by the time those that come close arrive, much may have changed. This is about as safe a bet for your triple captain as you’ll find. It’s time to pull the trigger.