Michael Carrick deserves the Man United job - this is why it's a much bigger gamble than they realise

Appointing the caretaker manager never works out – does it? You’d think Manchester United, of all clubs, would know that, given that it’s a mistake they’ve already made with Ole Gunnar Solskjær. But even though they have first-hand experience of the fact that successful interim managers seldom work out in the long run, it seems as though they are preparing to bow to the inevitable. Michael Carrick seems set to be made their next permanent head coach.

The Guardian have reported that Carrick is expected to be offered the job on a permanent basis in the coming weeks in spite of stories which suggest that the club had been in contact with Andoni Iraola. With the players seemingly on board and an unexpected qualification for the Champions League under his belt, Carrick has made a case that can’t easily be ignored. But just how much of a gamble would it represent if he were given the job for good?

Caretaker managers rarely work out – should United keep Carrick?

Plenty of caretaker and interim coaches have enjoyed brief spells of success in the Premier League. Few have sustained it – and it’s hard to avoid drawing the parallel between Carrick and Solskjær before him.

Like Carrick, the Norwegian was a former player who oversaw a short-term upswing in results after winning the dressing room over with his upbeat but unassuming personality. In the long run, however, Solskjær proved to be out of his depth tactically, and Carrick’s time with Middlesbrough raised plenty of questions about the breadth of his own strategic vision.

It’s not that Carrick struggled at the Riverside, per se, although the board there eventually grew tired with his failure to get out of the second tier, believing that they had a squad that should have been competing for automatic promotion. The issue was that he often failed to produce a Plan B when games didn’t go as anticipated, and his relatively conservative approach to management seemed to hold his team back. His Middlesbrough side were decent, but rarely grabbed games by the scruff of the neck and often dropped obtainable points as a result.

So far, that hasn’t been an issue at Old Trafford. He inherited a messy situation and swiftly set things right, thanks in no small part to the fact that his tactical ideology lines up rather nicely with the qualities of the players at his disposal. Ruben Amorim had forced a needless uphill battle with his dogmatic insistence on playing a 3-4-3 system that simply didn’t play to his squad’s strengths, but Carrick has proven to be a more holistic fit.

The result has been 10 wins, two draws and two defeats from his 14 matches in charge thus far, including impressive victories over Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool. It’s a short but strong CV, and it’s hard to make a cogent case for not giving him a longer leash and a proper contract – save for the possibility that he simply isn’t quite as good as other coaches who could be out there.

There’s a certain irony in the fact that the apparent competition, outgoing Bournemouth manager Iraola, owed his first Premier League job to his club’s somewhat heartless decision to jettison Gary O’Neil – himself one of very few interim managers to achieve some degree of sustained success – in favour of taking the chance that an ascending coach might prove to be an upgrade. United have the opportunity to be just as cold-blooded as the Cherries and to appoint a coach with a stronger track record. They seem likely to pass it up.

Iraola has proven himself to be a quite exceptional coach over the past few seasons. There are qualms, of course, not least that he’s never had to coach a side which expects to compete for silverware, but his CV is longer and meatier than Carrick’s. Few could blame them if they went for the Spaniard instead.

There is, in fairness, no debate about the fact that Carrick has done absolutely everything that could have been asked of him. His record during his brief tenure has been remarkable and even aside from ensuring the return of Champions League football, he has overseen a palpable shift in the mood at Old Trafford. By any sane standards, he deserves the job. That doesn’t necessarily mean that United couldn’t do better.

Carrick has won the respect of his squad – but questions remain

Solskjær is scarcely the only caretaker manager who couldn’t cut it after being given the chance full-time. Think of Roberto Di Matteo, who won the Champions League with Chelsea only for things to steadily go south the next season, or Glenn Roeder, who enjoyed a fine start at West Ham but soon took them down to the second tier. If Carrick succeeds long term, he will have defied historical precedent.

That doesn’t prove that he will fail, of course, but it does hint at the difference between an interim coach, whose job usually boils down to crisis management, and someone who needs to draw up and fulfil a long-term vision. Carrick has succeeded at coping with a crisis, albeit a relatively minor one in the grander scheme of things, but has yet to prove that he can build sustained success.

One battle he seems to have won convincingly is the battle to get the players on side. For years, rumours of dressing-room toxicity have plagued the Red Devils and their managers, but Carrick appears to have sweetened the atmosphere. The Guardian report that both Bruno Fernandes and Harry Maguire, among the most influential members of the squad, want him to get the job full-time, while Matheus Cunha has gone on record with his praise.

“He has the full confidence of the group,” the Brazilian forward said. “How he teaches everyone is amazing. I think he has the magic like with [Sir Alex] Ferguson… He’s a pleasure, and then of course I think he deserves it.”

Anyone who has had the pleasure of speaking to Carrick would understand the sentiment. He’s approachable, affable, and witty – in short, eminently likeable. As a journalist who has spoken to him, it’s easy to imagine players responding well to his humour and calm demeanour.

And he does deserve the job. How could anyone argue after what he’s achieved in just 14 matches? But the most important questions remain impossible to answer: Does he have the tactical nous to adjust his system when circumstances demand it? How will he respond when things go wrong? Can he keep the dressing room on side for years rather than weeks?

In appointing Carrick, as they seem set to do, Manchester United are making what they likely perceive as a risk-averse choice. In appointing a largely unproven caretaker full-time, however, they are taking a much bigger gamble than they might appreciate.

Perhaps they will look back in a year or two’s time and wish that they had rolled the dice on Iraola, who seems all but certain to succeed if he finds the right landing spot. All that can be said with certainty is that Carrick has earned his chance. Whether he takes it remains to be seen.