I consulted the stats – and Rayan Aït-Nouri is so nearly a perfect fit for Rúben Amorim’s Man Utd

With Rúben Amorim seemingly just a few formalities away from becoming the next Manchester United manager in November, speculation about the changes he might make to the squad is already rife.

It’s widely expected that significant changes are on the way as the Portuguese manager looks for ways to build a team that can play in his preferred 3-4-3 formation and can adapt to his aggressive and energetic high-pressing style of play – and the most problematic part of the current squad in that regard seems to be the wing-backs.

Watching Amorim’s Sporting side play reveals that his wing-backs aren’t really defenders at all, but wingers who form a key component of a five-man attack, getting wide of and often past three central attackers. Right now, it’s hard to imagine players like Luke Shaw, Diogo Dalot and Nouassir Mazraoui having the attacking chops or the speed and athleticism required to make it work.

Which may explain why GiveMeSport are already reporting that Amorim is looking for alternatives – and specifically, looking into a potential deal for Wolverhampton Wanderers’ 23-year-old left wing-back Rayan Aït-Nouri, who has previously been linked with a move to both Liverpool and Chelsea and could be valued as high as £60m.

According to the report, Manchester United are expected to “intensify” their pursuit of the Algerian, who has already scored three goals and set up two more in the Premier League despite Wolves’ disappointing start to the campaign. Having seen both the way Amorim wants his wing-backs to work and the way he plays for Wolves, signing Aït-Nouri would certainly make a lot of sense.

As the season has worn on, Aït-Nouri’s role in Gary O’Neil’s Wolves side has become more and more aggressive. Whether they’ve played a back four or five (both have been employed at different stages of the season), the Algerian has been well up the field of play, supplementing the attack first and foremost and racing back to help the defence out when out of possession.

That style of play fits Amorim’s methods perfectly, and he has the energy and pace to get up and down the pitch quickly in a way that United’s current crop of wide defenders simply don’t.

The question, then, is whether he offers enough in the final third to be worth as much as £60m, if that alleged price tag is accurate. After all, while his five goal contributions thus far this campaign represent an impressive return, it’s also already his highest watermark. Those three goals are a new personal best in a league season, and two assists already ties his record. So is Aït-Nouri good enough, or simply on a hot streak?

The statistics present a mixed picture. Below is a table comparing Aït-Nouri’s numbers from the past year of football in key areas to those put up by his potential rivals for a wing-back slot in the Manchester United team – and he’s clearly well ahead of Dalot, Mazraoui and Shaw as a creative force, generating the most chances for both himself and others around him while being a far better dribbler whose dynamism would offer United more bite and more options going forward.

But while Aït-Nouri is almost certainly a better attacking option than anyone Amorim would have at his disposal in the current squad, that doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s good enough to be part of a side that will want to be competing for trophies. For instance, while creating 2.84 shooting opportunities per game is better than Shaw, it still lags well behind the best creative wing-backs. Trent Alexander-Arnold, for the sake of comparison, has generated 4.81 such chances every match over the same period. That’s a very high bar indeed, but for £60m it’s the kind of number a player needs to be closer to.

It’s also worth noting that while Aït-Nouri’s output in terms of chances created and expected goal contributions has improved this season, those numbers haven’t gone up all that far and don’t imply that he will maintain the current rate of return in the final third across the whole season. He is improving, as one would expect given his age, but he has a fair way to go to get to the elite level before he enters his likely prime years. It’s always a judgement call as to whether he’ll get there, but there isn’t yet clear evidence of a large upward curve - just a gentle, gradual one.

In short, Aït-Nouri is a perfect stylistic match but doesn’t yet create enough chances to be inherently worth the sums being touted and may not quite hit the heights in his career required by most high-level teams. For Amorim, then, the question is whether he values the raw production or a player who can play a role which gives his team the right shape and dynamism, believing that the system will deliver the end product even if some individuals within it cannot.

If that’s the case, then the Algerian could still be a great fit. He’s comfortable on the outside of a three-man attack, can deliver a dangerous cross and has the pace to exploit space and test opposing full-backs, and he doesn’t give up too much heading back the other way. That’s just what Amorim wants from his wing-backs – but there may be other plays out there who can do all of that and provide more goals and assists, too.