Arda Güler’s transfer decision should be crystal clear amid Liverpool, Newcastle and Arsenal interest

A few weeks ago, hardly anyone outside of Turkey knew about Arda Güler. The only people in the know were the tragic anoraks of European football, like me, and people who read the articles those anoraks wrote, like this entry in The Wonderkid Files from a few months back.

Since then, his name has found its way onto every back page in Europe. Every big club’s scouting team knew about him, of course – they’re firmly in the anorak category – and since he started getting regular minutes at Fenerbahçe and wowing pretty much everyone watching with his touch, control, dribbling and goal threat, the transfer machine has been set in motion and the rumour mill has linked him with practically every single major club in Europe.

That he has a reported £17.5m release clause has only sped the process up. That’s probably a fraction of his future value – this kid is very special indeed, a fact helpfully underlined by his glorious goal against Wales in European Championship qualifying last Monday.

But where should Arda go, given his likely choices? We’re going to assess the appeal of his three reported Premier League suitors – Newcastle United, Liverpool and Arsenal – and also discuss the merits of a move to two continental contenders for his signature, Real Madrid and Ajax. It’s worth bearing in mind that many more clubs have had their name in the frame at some stage, so this is not intended as an exhausted list of every conceivable club. These are simply the current frontrunners as far as the press are concerned.

Arsenal

Arda can play across the attacking midfield line, but his best performances have come either as a number ten, slotting in behind the central striker, or wide right and cutting inside. That would put him in direct competition for a slot with Martin Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka – two of Arsenal’s best and most established players.

Arda is only 18 years of age – normally a point in a career when being a back-up is no issue at all – but his ability demands first-team football. Arsenal may just be a step too far, too soon when their current starters are so exceptional in their own right.

Liverpool

Liverpool’s midfield and front line are in transition, with Sadio Mané and Roberto Firmino gone and newer players like Darwin Nuñez and Cody Gakpo yet to settle or nail down specific roles in the attacking set-up.

That leaves some room for Arda to get more minutes than he might at Arsenal, but he’d still be directly up against some bloke called Mohamed Salah for his single best position – and his relatively languid, controlled style would seem an odd fit for Jürgen Klopp’s hyper-tempo football. He plays wide right completely differently to Salah, and for Arda to be a first-team consideration for Liverpool would require a major tactical re-imagining. It simply doesn’t feel right.

Newcastle United

Arguably the best fit for Arda in the Premier League simply because he has the clearest gap to slot into – Eddie Howe’s front line is still in flux and he still hasn’t found the creative fulcrum around which to build an attack. Arda could easily be exactly the man the Magpies need.

He’d get Champions League football and plenty of minutes, even if he wouldn’t be nailed on to start every last game, which is fair enough for a developing talent – but Newcastle’s system is developing too, and that would give the young Turk the chance to imprint himself on it rather than trying to be shoehorned into an established set-up. If he does fancy a move to England, Newcastle look like the most sensible landing spot for him.

Real Madrid

Clearly, Arda would have a tough time getting into Real’s first team – so they have proposed that he either spend a season back on loan in Istanbul, or develop in the Madrid side’s B team, Castilla.

On paper, you’d be hard pressed to see the appeal for Arda, but apparently he’s a huge Real fan and is especially keen to follow in the footsteps of his idol and mentor, Mesut Özil – which is making his serious consider an offer which he would dismiss from any other club. There’s also an argument that, for all of Real’s obvious quality up front, one of their relative weak links (and it is very relative) is Rodrygo, and perhaps Arda could assert himself in the right-sided role in the future, or even play ahead of Jude Bellingham. There are ways it could work – but if Arsenal is a step too high, too soon, perhaps Madrid would be too.

Ajax

One of the great nurseries of European talent, Ajax have been a stepping stone for many of the greats of the game, and are rumoured to be the current favourites to sign the Turk. Their track record at developing players and selling them on as world-beaters in waiting gives them some serious clout when it comes to signing those “in between” talents, and Arda is as good as it gets in that category.

The biggest stumbling block is that Ajax missed out on Champions League football by finishing third in the Eredivise last season, and have not looked like their best selves since Erik ten Hag left to join Manchester United – so there’s a pretty valid question over how much more quality experience Arda could get in Amsterdam than he could get at Fenerbahçe – and there remains a very real chance that he could simply decide to put the transfer saga on the back burner for a year and reassess after another season in the Turkish Super Lig.

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So what should he do? Staying put makes sense, in truth, but the appeal of a big wage bump and the chance to work with the players and coaches of a European powerhouse must be alluring. If he does decide to move on, it’s hard to argue against Newcastle – unless Real Madrid could give him the chance to take an advantageous loan back home. But the Magpies should, in theory, be a great landing spot for one of Europe’s best young players, and they’d be well advised to do everything in their power to make it happen…