The £53m Joelinton replacement that Newcastle should think twice about signing
Newcastle United have been linked with a big-money signing from Serie A - but would signing him solve anything?
Ask pundits or fans why Newcastle United aren’t quite living up to expectations this seasons, and you’d get a wide array of answers. Key players have been injured, while many of those who are fit have been out of sorts. Both offer excuses, but there’s also a sense that this is a slightly disjointed team that has struggled to replicate the intensity of its best form under Eddie Howe.
One of the players whose individual performances have caused concern is Joelinton. A fan favourite on Tyneside, the Brazilian has been playing some way below his par – less dynamic on the ball, and less destructive off it. At least one media outlet believes that Newcastle are debating whether to move on.
The i newspaper reported this week that concerns over Joelinton’s form and age mean that they are considering signing his compatriot Éderson, a star in Serie A for Atalanta for the past few seasons, as a long-term replacement. But would that deal really make much sense for Newcastle?
How does Éderson compare with Joelinton – and are Newcastle right to consider signing him?
There is little question that the Brazilian would fit Howe’s template. A box-to-box midfielder with boundless energy who can impact a match all the way up and down the pitch, he would match up nicely with the basic tactical tenets at Newcastle – hard pressing, tough tackling and the dynamism to play a part in quick breaks.
Much like Joelinton, Éderson is equally effective hassling opposing players and forcing turnovers as he is sprinting towards the opposing ball with the ball at his feet. In fact, in the latter part of that equation, he’s even more effective. At his best, two seasons ago, Joelinton averaged around 150 yards of ball carrying per match. Éderson is currently going at over 200.
The eye test backs up the numbers – Éderson is a superb dribbler with fine technique and the right combination of pace, guts and control to break the lines on his own and help his team to spring quick breaks. He also averaged over five ball recoveries per game, much the same as Joelinton managed at his best. They have a similar playing style, but Éderson is a better technical player while lacking none of Joelinton’s blood and thunder.
That thunder has been rather more of a gentle rumble in the distance this season. From last season to this, Joelinton’s total number of ball recoveries has dropped by over 30%, successful tackles by 20% and dribbling attempts the same amount – and those numbers were even higher prior to the 2024/25 season. Joelinton has been off the boil for some time.
In that context, a move for Éderson would make plenty of sense. He’s a like-for-like replacement but younger and likely better. He should fit Howe’s system beautifully and has few meaningful weaknesses. He’d be a fine addition to the Newcastle squad. But would signing him really make the difference?
Why replacing Joelinton may not be the answer
There are issues with the notion that finding a replacement for Joelinton would make a significant difference to the team’s performances – and that’s before wondering whether engineering a ‘long-term replacement’ for a 29-year-old by signing a player just three years younger makes perfect sense in the first place.
For starters, the problem isn’t unique to Joelinton. Sandro Tonali’s production on and off the ball has declined at a very similar rate from last season to this year, and of Newcastle’s starting midfield three only Bruno Guimarães has managed to maintain his high standards, at least on a statistical level.
Given that, at 29, Joelinton is hardly a wizened ancient of the game, it’s reasonable to see his decline not as an individual issue but as an indictment of the team as a whole. There is a loss of aggression, confidence and quality in several areas, and Joelinton is perhaps just one victim of a broader malaise rather than a root cause of it.
Injuries to Lewis Hall and Valentino Livramento have been problematic – the midfield is less effective when Dan Burn and Kieran Trippier play the wing-back role as neither are quite as able to get into supporting positions with the same speed or impact. Howe has also adjusted his strategy over the last two seasons – the defensive line is less high up the field, the pressing has been dialled back slightly, and while Newcastle remain relatively compact, the amount of ground the midfield has to cover has increased and the value of midfielders whose strength lies in short-distance bursts of pressing and dribbling on-and-off the ball perhaps reduced.
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If Joelinton and Tonali are failing to hit the heights, it seems plausible that it’s a systemic issue – in which case, signing a like-for-like replacement makes little sense. It may be more logical to adapt the midfield by signing, for instance, a traditional number ten whose positioning would push Newcastle back towards a double pivot, which demands less of the midfielders involved and gives them a smaller zone in which to operate.
It's not that signing Éderson would be an unwise move in its own right, given that his natural playing style and skill-set complements Newcastle’s fundamental style nicely, simply that it makes rather less sense to treat him as a replacement for a player who is likely to have good years ahead of him – or to expect him to fix what may be a broader underlying issue.
It was widely reported when Éderson’s name was floating around the gossip columns over the summer that Atalanta were likely to ask for at least €60m (£53m) for the midfielder – that’s a lot of money to Newcastle and not an amount they can afford to spend on a luxury when there are other areas of need. They need depth out wide, up front and at the back, and those areas are surely a priority ahead of a new midfielder, especially with Joe Willock available and, even more importantly, Lewis Miley coming on slowly but surely.
Besides, while we ponder what personal or team-wide failings mean that Joelinton is winning the ball back from the other team more than 30% less frequently this season – guess how much less often Éderson is winning it back over in Italy, too?