The rising Newcastle United star who should be untouchable – and the risk he leaves in January

On Sunday, Newcastle United face local rivals Sunderland in their first top-flight encounter since 2016, and the fans fortunate enough to get tickets for the short trip to the Stadium of Light will be worried about two very different things: Firstly, the fact that Sunderland have been disconcertingly good since their promotion, and secondly the possibility that Lewis Miley might leave the club next month.

It's a story that’s been doing the rounds with just enough regularity to generate some genuine concern. Newcastle have spent much of the last few seasons fretting about their PSR position and there has been speculation that the 19-year-old Miley could be sacrificed in much the same way that Elliot Anderson was in 2024.

Selling Anderson to make the books line up was a mistake that has come back to haunt Newcastle – so are they really likely to risk history repeating itself? Could Miley leave St. James’ Park? And, perhaps most importantly, just how important is he to Newcastle’s long-term future?

Why selling Lewis Miley would be a mistake on a par with the sale of Elliot Anderson

When Newcastle sold Anderson to Nottingham Forest as part of a convoluted deal involving Odysseas Vlachodimos, it was hard not to view it not as a piece of business that they wanted to make on its footballing merit but as a way to ensure that both teams dodged a potential points deduction for PSR breaches. Indeed, the Premier League even issued a sternly-worded warning after the deal went through.

The loss of Anderson, the lamb laid in front of the altar of the league’s financial regulations, has been a source of regret ever since. He has flourished at the City Ground, forcing his way into a starting place in the England side and being hyped as a potential £100m signing for one of the top flight’s wealthiest clubs next year. It could have been Newcastle who got the benefit of his drive, dynamism and ankle-snapping determination – and the cash that Forest will likely get from his sale.

Selling Anderson was a mistake that has been felt all the more keenly because Newcastle’s midfield hasn’t been quite the force that it once was this season. Bruno Guimarães has maintained his high standards but neither Sandro Tonali not Joelinton have been at their best. For some time, Eddie Howe’s midfield always felt like it had four players in it. Now, the truth has become a little more clear.

In that context, Miley’s recent run of form hasn’t just been impressive but has also made him very important. Not only has he scored twice in the past four games, but he’s started to look like a more controlled player who imposes himself on matches in a way that we didn’t really see last season. The teenager seems to have taken a step forward.

That’s obvious almost everywhere on the stat sheet. His passing is better and more economical. He’s better in one-on-one situations with the ball at his feet. He’s making fewer tackles, but is making a higher percentage of them successfully and has more than doubled the rate at which he makes interceptions – a good sign of a player learning the art of being in the right place at the right time such that he doesn’t need to lunge in to break down an attack.

With Joelinton looking a little leggy, Tonali looking a little less incisive and a pronounced lack of depth in midfield, Miley has become a key part of the equation. Without him, Newcastle would not have the depth to compete effectively both domestically and in Europe – and may not be able to muster up the same combination of intense defensive work and dynamic, counter-attacking play which made Howe’s midfield the key to their successes over the past few seasons.

Even if Miley didn’t have the potential to go further and to grow into an even more impactful player in the long run, selling him would be a short-term problem too. But is there any chance that it really happens?

Will Newcastle sell Lewis Miley this January?

Nobody believes that either Howe or the higher-ups at Newcastle want to sell Miley. Nobody believes that Miley, under contract until 2029, wants to leave. But plenty of people believe that Newcastle may be forced to sell their only academy player of significant value to make the PSR calculations make sense.

It’s a supposition which stems in part from the fact that Newcastle have strayed close to the fire with PSR over the past few years. Had they not engineered the sale of Anderson, they would have been fretting over a points deduction last season, and they were believed to have cut their loss limits relatively close again at the end of the 2024/25 campaign. Yankuba Minteh followed not long after for similar reasons.

Throw in a summer of significant outlays and the persistent complaints of both Howe and the board about the restrictions PSR have placed on Newcastle’s spending power, and you develop the picture of a club which may have to contemplate selling its best young players to avoid punishment.

This season, however, the real picture is rather different. The British record £125m fee completely changes Newcastle’s fiscal outlook and regardless of Liverpool’s payment schedule can be ‘banked’ all at once for PSR purposes. For context, they will earn enough from Isak to fund an entire year of operating losses even after using some of the money to sign Yoane Wissa. Newcastle have far more breathing room now than at any other point since the current owners took control.

Still, the story has stuck around and Howe was even asked about Miley’s future after he scored in the impressive 4-1 win over Everton at the start of the month.

"There are definite parallels between Lewis and Elliot [Anderson], although they have had different journeys," Howe said. "I'm determined to keep him here. I'm determined for him to have the career at Newcastle that I think he can have, have the effect he can have long term and become synonymous with the football club for many years to come."

This time, there is no financial compulsion for Newcastle to shoot themselves in the foot, as they did with Anderson. The player is getting first-team football, deservedly so, and has been one of the club’s better players over the past few weeks. He’s also one of relatively few players on the books who are young enough that they could form part of a long-term core for the club for the next decade.

Newcastle made a mistake with Anderson, whose success elsewhere has served as a punishment for the Magpies’ failure to balance the books more efficiently. They won’t make the same mistake twice, and there is no outside force to push them towards that cliff edge for the second time.

Miley will, surely, stay at St. James’ Park this January and likely beyond, and Newcastle’s fans need not worry about whether a rare player that they can truly call ‘one of their own’ will leave. Now they just need to worry about Sunderland and that remarkably impressive defence this Sunday. The Black Cats are more likely to pose a problem than Miley in the near future.