Sunderland won't sack Régis Le Bris this summer – but the areas they must improve are glaring

It was one of those rumours which reeked from the very start: On Wednesday, TalkSport published a story which suggested that Sunderland owner Kyril Louis-Dreyfus had “not ruled out” replacing head coach Régis Le Bris if the Black Cats failed to make it into Europe. It never sounded plausible, and has been swiftly quashed by further reporting.

Both The Sunderland Echo and Sky Sports reporter Keith Downie responded by stating that sources at the Stadium of Light have denied that Le Bris’ job is under any threat. Even thinking about firing him would have been obscene. Whether or not they can sneak into continental competition, keeping Sunderland so far away from the relegation battle all season is a remarkable feat in its own right. Le Bris will surely remain in post past the summer – but will Sunderland keep getting better?

Why there’s no chance that Sunderland will sack Régis Le Bris

Le Bris will rightly take considerable credit both for getting Sunderland promoted in the first place and then for demonstrating that they were not relegation fodder, as is the case with most teams that come up through the Championship play-offs, but a team that can compete meaningfully at the very highest level.

Heading into their Friday evening match against Nottingham Forest, they are just three points behind Bournemouth, who currently occupy the Europa Conference League qualification place, with a game in hand. The middle of the Premier League table is so densely packed that any one of perhaps nine teams could plausibly make it into the last two European places, but the fact that Sunderland are even in the conversation is somewhat extraordinary.

An sublime summer transfer window explains much of Sunderland’s success, but it was Le Bris who took an almost entirely new squad and knocked it into shape – coaching unfamiliar players effectively enough that they have looked well-drilled while using different formations and playing styles throughout the season. They look like a team that has played together for years, despite the opposite being true.

For that reason alone, sacking the 50-year-old would be utterly absurd, a decision which would rank among the very worst managerial moves made in the top flight. Even crisis club Leicester City removing Claudio Ranieri less than a year after the winning the title in 2016 might not be quite as bad as binning Le Bris would be.

Fortunately, TalkSport’s report seems likely to have been utter nonsense. Le Bris himself was asked about the rumour during his pre-match press conference on Thursday evening and brushed any concerns off in unflustered fashion.

“We are in a really good position and really well aligned,” Le Bris told the media. “We wanted to be in the Premier League at the end of the season, which is done. We wanted to create consistency, and a top 10 position and we are on the way. I hope we have the ability to do it together. Everyone can give an opinion about my job or your job. I'm not against rumours or gossip and I'm just focused on my job, it's not a problem.”

Not a problem, indeed. If Le Bris isn’t in the Sunderland dugout next August, it will be because a bigger club swooped in for him, not because his board dispensed with his services.

Still, while Le Bris has done a wonderful job so far, there are some stats which suggest that Sunderland may be batting a little over their average this season. The lack of goals – only the two relegated teams and Crystal Palace have scored fewer – has been discussed at length, but there are also suggestions that their seemingly exceptional defence may not be able to continue keeping clean sheets forever.

Sunderland have only shipped 40 goals all season, giving them a better defensive record than every team other than Manchester City and Arsenal. But the xG model shows that they have conceded over 54xG’s worth of chances – the fourth worst in the division. That hints at an unsustainable record.

Le Bris, then, has been both lucky and good as Sunderland manager so far. A few underlying numbers that suggest the defence isn’t quite as good as it appears shouldn’t be enough to make anyone question his job. But what can Sunderland do – beyond keeping a good manager in his post – to ensure that this season isn’t a flash in the pan?

What Sunderland need to do this summer to continue to thrive in the Premier League

As that huge gulf between the goals that Sunderland have conceded and those that the stats suggest that they ‘should’ have conceded strongly suggests, one of the biggest battles that the Black Cats will face this summer is the one to keep hold of Robin Roefs, who has been exceptional this season and likely Sunderland’s single most important player.

Chelsea are among the sides said to be considering a transfer bid for the revelatory Dutch goalkeeper, and if he leaves then Le Bris will have a pretty significant headache on his hands. They may also lose right-back loanee Lutsharel Geertruida and out-of-contract left-back Dennis Cirkin, while Reinildo Mandava is starting to get up there in years. All of which is a short way of observing that while Sunderland’s hunt for goal-scorers will dominate discussion ahead of the transfer window, a refresh in defence is required as well.

The good news is that Roefs is among a relatively small number of core players who appears to be attracting significant attention from wealthier Premier League sides. Noah Sadiki appears to be on the fringes of a few shortlists, but otherwise Sunderland should be able to keep hold of most of the players that they want to have in their side for the long haul. That makes life rather easier – many teams who ‘overachieve’ in the Premier League quickly get picked apart by the teams above them, but that outcome doesn’t look too likely as it stands.

A new goalkeeper may be required, while new full-backs and a centre-back almost certainly will be despite the success of their back line this season. If Sadiki leaves, then a combination of his departure and Granit Xhaka’s age might necessitate a fresh face in midfield, too. One or two more rolls of the dice will be necessary up front, meanwhile, because although Brian Brobbey has impressed in patches since arriving from Ajax, there is a broader lack of both creativity and finishing quality in the final third.

In short, Sunderland can’t stand still and must continue the process of building and refreshing their squad to succeed in the long term. If Roefs and Sadiki left and Xhaka started to show signs of wear and tear, then they would likely begun to look a lot more than one or two players away from being persistent contenders for the European places. One big summer won’t cut it – another looks necessary.

Without reinforcing the defence and adding some cutting edge, the underlying numbers behind Sunderland’s 2025/26 campaign suggests that they may struggle to maintain their performance levels and their current results. That shouldn’t detract from their achievements over the past eight months – merely highlight how difficult it is not only to get into the Premier League, but to survive and flourish in it. There’s a lot of work still to be done on Wearside. That doesn’t mean that finding a new head coach should form a part of it.