The stunning January swap deal that could help Chelsea cruise to top four finish

For the most part, it had been widely expected that Chelsea’s activity in the January transfer window would be restricted to selling players that were deemed surplus to requirements in Enzo Maresca’s new world order – but a new transfer rumour suggests that they may have found a way to kill two birds with one stone and not only sign a thrilling young forward but also rid themselves of a player who has struggled to live up to expectations.

Fabrizio Romano reported yesterday that Chelsea are interested in Bayern Munich starlet Mathys Tel, a versatile 19-year-old forward widely regarded as one of the brightest talents in Europe – but also that the German giants have themselves made an enquiry about Christopher Nkunku. A rare swap deal could be in the offing, with German news outlet Bild also carrying the story.

But for all his undoubted talent, would it make sense for Chelsea to sign Tel, and could he energise their push for a Champions League place? And should they real shepherd Nkunku out of Stamford Bridge just 18 months after signing him for £52m?

Just how good is Mathys Tel?

French Under-21 international Tel burst onto the scene in 2022, when Bayern signed him for a fee of €28.5m (£24m) from Rennes despite the fact that then 17-year-old had only made 10 senior appearances. Tel went straight into Bayern first-team squad and by the end of his second season had already scored 12 goals and contributed five assists in the Bundesliga having made just seven starts.

As a result, much was expected from Tel heading into the 2024/25 season, but he remains glued to the bench. Tel has started just two more league games and has yet to score, and there are growing murmurs that he is dissatisfied with his playing time. Bayern’s sporting director Christoph Freund has insisted that Tel has an “important role” to play with the club, but that role has yet to become tangible.

Tel is blessed with exceptional technique, a lethal turn of pace and impressive dribbling skills, and is a very dangerous passer who constantly looks for killer balls – he makes more passes into the box per game for Bayern than Cole Palmer does currently for Chelsea, and completes more passes. He’s a genuine creative force as well as a promising goalscorer, and seems to have an incredibly high ceiling.

He's also versatile, able to play as a central striker but just as happy on the wings, usually operating down the left flank. That isn’t necessarily a position Chelsea need to cover however, given the large number of options in Maresca’s squad down the left side – not that Tel couldn’t end up proving to be an improvement on their current options. But it would be fair to assume that if Chelsea are serious about signing Tel, then they would have to offer more first-team football than he’s getting at Bayern right now and would likely want him to operate primarily as a striker, at least at first.

In the long run, there is every chance that Tel ends up being better than Nkunku. He is a prodigious talent and has proven capable of making an impact at the elite level at a very young age. But whether he’s better game in, game out than Nicolas Jackson right now is less clear, not least because the Senegalese forward’s form waxes and wanes as much as it does.

Right now, Jackson gets himself in better positions more often and has a higher rate of expected goals per game, but that’s partly due to his playing in a more advanced position more often. Whether Tel would be able to settle in to life in a new country and a new club quickly enough to be a strong alternative when Jackson is off the boil for the rest of the season, when European qualification is on the line, is less than clear.

Should Chelsea sell Nkunku?

The other side of the equation is whether it makes sense to move on from Nkunku already. The Frenchman’s first season at Stamford Bridge was brutally interrupted by injuries but having had a largely clean bill of health this time around he has struggled to break into Maresca’s side, making just three league starts and scoring twice. In the Europa Conference League, he has managed five goals in five games to go with three assists, but then it’s easier to impress against FC Noah and Shamrock Rovers.

Given Nkunku’s reputation, his success at RB Leipzig and his price tag, Nkunku has undeniably been a failure so far. In particular, he has struggled, uncharacteristically, in front of goal – those two league goals have come from exactly 4.0xG, and there is the sense of a player lacking in confidence or killer instinct when the chances fall to him.

His overall play and contribution to the build-up has been good, and he’s producing precisely as many expected assists per game as Palmer as it stands (albeit over a much smaller sample size) and is worth more expected goals as well, but while his technique and talent aren’t in doubt, the end product has been lacking.

The question is how patient Chelsea can afford to be. It may be that once the goals start coming and his faith in his finishing is restored, he goes on a tear, but right now Maresca plainly prefers Palmer as a number ten and Jackson as the central striker, and if the Italian has determined that Nkunku isn’t worth giving more chances to then it’s probably best to sell and free up the funds to make a new signing, whether that’s Tel or another player.

Chelsea’s financial future could rest on qualifying for the Champions League sooner rather than later, and thanks to a fine start to the season they are in a good position to do so this season – but it will likely be a tight race to the top four with plenty of other strong contenders around them, and the club can ill afford to carry a player struggling with his game or to give him the minutes he needs to get back to his best.

The oddity of a swap deal in this position is that in sending Nkunku to Bayern Munich, Chelsea would be servicing their short term needs – but in signing Tel, a huge prospect but one who may need to time to adjust and develop before he makes the difference in the Premier League, they would be bringing a player to Stamford Bridge who services the club’s long-term ambitions. That doesn’t mean it wouldn’t still be a fine deal to make, but Maresca and his transfer team would need to be confident that if Tel takes time to get up to speed, they still have the firepower to make the top four without him.