Why altitude and the opposition mean that Mexico are England's toughest World Cup test
How will altitude affect England at the Azteca? And how will Mexico’s playing style make life harder still? The Three Lions’ greatest World Cup challenge explained.
Never in their history have Mexico lost a World Cup match at the Estadio Azteca. Never have they failed to reach the quarter-finals on home soil. Standing between them and the extension of that indomitable record are England.
In the small hours of Monday morning – as far as English fans who haven’t made the trip are concerned, at least – the Three Lions will face their toughest challenge yet, and the other team might not even be the biggest problem. Altitude could easily be the fiercest opponent that Thomas Tuchel’s side have to overcome.
How altitude could impact England’s chances against Mexico
This will be the first time that England have played at altitude since the 2010 World Cup, when they failed to beat either the United States or Germany at approximately 1,200m and 1,400m above sea level respectively. The legendary Azteca is higher still: 2,240m up, a point at which altitude sickness can render even the fittest player ineffective.
Altitude sickness isn’t predictable. Many people feel no ill effects whatsoever, while others struggle to breathe freely from the moment they get off the plane. For the unfortunates, two or three days of headaches, fatigue, nausea and worsened sleep can follow, all while enduring a persistent sensation akin to hyperventilation. This author can attest to such unpleasantness from personal experience.
Even for those who don’t suffer such symptoms, the thinner air will have an impact. At the Azteca, every gulp of air brings in around 25% less oxygen than usual, and that significantly reduces recovery time from high-effort aerobic exercise. Even the England players who feel fine when they disembark will find that they need to measure their efforts or swiftly become exhausted.
It doesn’t help that the usual solutions for travellers are off the table. Medicines such as acetazolamide, widely available over the counter in high-altitude countries, are banned by the World Anti-Doping Agency barring therapeutic use exemptions. Coca tea, a traditional and effective remedy in much of Latin America, is off the table too – it’s illegal in Mexico and while not a narcotic, can still produce a positive test for cocaine.
There is no foolproof plan to acclimatise save for spending at least two weeks training at altitude in advance, which is not an option for England. BBC Sport report that they plan to travel to Mexico City on Friday, giving them the benefit of a training session and the chance to find out which players might be struggling. Thomas Tuchel may well be forced into making changes that have nothing to do with tactics.
England supporters hoping that the team can pick up the pace of its attack may well be disappointed. With the necessity of conserving energy and aerobic capacity, patient possession and build-up will be a requirement rather than a choice. The Three Lions were able to wear the Democratic Republic of Congo down in the round of 32, but will most likely tire long before Mexico do.
Half of the Mexican side play their domestic football in their home country and even those who play abroad are well used to operating at high altitude. Their performance will be uncompromised. England’s most certainly will be.
They will also have to learn – very quickly – how to handle the difference in the way that the ball travels through the air. The thinner air at higher altitudes allows the ball to move further and more quickly thanks to the reduction in drag, meaning that high balls are harder to judge and seemingly innocuous long shots can fly into the corner of the net. Jordan Pickford will have to be at his sharpest, which he hasn’t been so far at the World Cup.
Compounding the challenges of playing at altitude, of course, is the fact that Mexico are a formidable side who have won every match so far without conceding a single goal. If England so much as score, they will have done more than anyone else in their situation has managed. To win, they will need to break completely new ground.
Altitude isn’t England’s only problem – Mexico are a strong side
Mexico’s thus far unblemished record at the World Cup isn’t solely a product of the altitude that all of their games have been played at, of course. Javier Aguirre’s side are well-drilled defensively and pugnacious in attack. England are unlikely to be offered many of the kind of slower spells of play they might need in order to stay conditioned.
What England might get is plenty of possession. Mexico have seen less of the ball than their opponents in all three of their matches since the opening-day win over 10-man South Africa and are likely to spend extended periods in precisely the kind of low block that has frustrated England in previous matches.
That’s likely to prove a mixed blessing – England need the ball to be able to dictate the tempo and avoid tiring themselves out, but appear to be more threatening in an open, fast-paced game, precisely the kind of game they can’t afford to play at the Azteca. They may be damned either way.
Describing Mexico as a purely defensive outfit would be do them a disservice, in any case. Aside from the experienced and in-form Raúl Jiménez, they have the threat of Julián Quiñones, the leading scorer in last season’s Saudi Pro League who already has three goals in this tournament, and the precocious guile of 17-year-old Gilberto Mora. They have the tools to get at England’s nervy back line.
It’s hard to find too many pronounced edges for England to exploit. Mexico have talent and a team whose playing style may prove problematic. They have the altitude and history on their side – and the fans, of course, although the Azteca crowd can turn quickly. Mexico were jeered off at half-time against South Korea with the score at 0-0.
Perhaps England can seize control of their last-16 match swiftly and convincingly enough to get the fans on the Mexican team’s back. Perhaps they will be lucky with how their players adjust to altitude. But there is only one certainty – this will be an immensely difficult match, and a unique test of England’s World Cup credentials.