Switzerland showed England how to beat Argentina - and how to keep Messi quiet

In many ways, the story of Argentina’s progress to the World Cup semi-finals closely mirrors the tale of England’s own path to the last four. If their results and the means by which they were achieved serve as any guide, Wednesday evening’s contest is too tight to call.

Both teams won their groups in relatively comfortable fashion, made heavy weather of beating an unfancied African side in the round of 32, followed that with a hard-fought 3-2 win in the last 16 and were then compelled to tough out an extra-time victory over a European nation in the quarter-finals. Both teams have also had to lean rather heavily on the power of their starriest players: Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham for England, Lionel Messi for Argentina.

This is a semi-final contested by two teams in near-identical form and who possess similar strengths and weaknesses. So can England’s stars outshine Messi, perhaps the brightest of them all?

Did Switzerland teach England how to keep Lionel Messi quiet?

To get past Argentina, England will have to do something that very few teams manage: Limit Messi’s influence on the match. It’s certainly not something that anyone has convincingly succeeded in doing at the World Cup thus far.

Messi scored at least once in each of his first five matches and jointly led the race for the Golden Boot with Kylian Mbappé prior to the semi-finals. He didn’t get on the scoresheet against Switzerland, but still provided the assist for Alexis Mac Allister’s opener. Whenever Messi has been on the field, he has made things happen. Eventually.

England did manage to shut down Erling Haaland during their quarter-final against Norway, so they will at least head into Wednesday’s match confident in the knowledge that they have a track record of keeping the best forwards in the world quiet – but Messi is another matter. This is the best player of his generation, perhaps of all time, and he has magic in his boots.

Switzerland may have failed in their attempt to defeat Messi and his colleagues, but they did provide something of a blueprint for the task even in defeat. They did, after all, make Argentina look distinctly average for much of the match until Breel Embolo decided to shoot an entire nation in the foot by getting himself sent off.

When the Swiss had a full complement on the field, Messi didn’t muster a single shot on goal. Even after they went down to 10 men, he was restricted for a while – Messi managed just one touch in the opposing penalty area across the entire 120 minutes, a blocked shot on the break right at the very death. As a goal threat, he was diminished.

Switzerland achieved this primarily by playing with a much higher defensive line than Argentina’s previous opponents. Where most teams who have faced them have opted for a respectful low block, Murat Yakin chose to be far more aggressive, restricting the space in midfield and forcing Argentina to go direct if they wanted to find relatively easy routes to goal. It was an invitation that they declined.

The result was that Argentina created precious little prior to Embolo’s red card. Even after the sending off, it took them a while to wear Switzerland down – Argentina managed just five shots in the first hour and it took them another 30 minutes to manage their sixth.

Argentina’s compact formation, which places the attacking midfielders almost on top of each other behind Messi, meant that they struggled to move the ball effectively against a team who restricted the size of the pitch. Quicker sides might have been able to knock the ball over the top of the Swiss defence and use the space in behind, but pace isn’t Argentina’s strongest suit. They have few players who can punish an aggressive high press – Lautaro Martínez can, but started on the bench - and are set up to keep the ball and unpick teams with their technical quality instead.

As Switzerland tired and the disadvantage of being a man down began to tell, Argentina started creating more and Messi was finally able to make his presence felt. Six shots in the first 90 minutes became 22 by the end of extra time, with Messi creating half a dozen chances all by himself. By the end, the statistics made it look like a convincing win and another fine performance by Argentine’s little wizard – but for much of the match, they were becalmed. Thomas Tuchel might have been taking notes.

Will Kane and Bellingham’s firepower be enough to see England through?

Even if England can copy Switzerland’s homework successfully, however, they will still need to find ways to score themselves. So far, that hasn’t been too much of a problem – in Kane they have one of the world’s greatest goalscorers and in Bellingham they have the ultimate big-game player. Argentina’s centre-back pairing will, however, be the best that England have faced by far.

Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martínez are known quantities, a defensive partnership who skillsets complement each other and whose experience at the top level means that they are unlikely to be fazed by the occasion. They have been here before and won, and are unlikely to be trembling at the knees in Atlanta.

Argentina are perhaps a little weaker at full-back. Atlético Madrid’s Nahuel Molina is a fine all-round full-back but scarcely world class, while Nicolás Tagliafico is 33 and hasn’t been at his best over the past year or so. Neither has been especially convincing at the World Cup thus far. The wide areas may be Argentina’s soft spot.

That means that the onus might end up being less on Kane and Bellingham and more on the wingers – probably Anthony Gordon and perhaps Bukayo Saka, should he be restored to the starting line-up after Noni Madueke’s unconvincing 45-minute outing against the Norwegians.

There will be space to work with, and there will be winnable one-on-one match-ups. If England’s wingers can find their best form and create chances, then Kane and Bellingham will get their opportunity to outgun Messi. If the Three Lions can get the ball out wide with regularity, then England might be able to pin back the full-backs who provide much of the width to an otherwise narrow Argentine attack.

Should Argentina’s full-backs win their battles, however, then it may prove challenging to create much through the middle given that Argentina’s midfield will be working hard to overload and pin down England in the central areas. If Argentina can dominate possession and push England deeper and narrower, then they have the class and quality to overpower Tuchel’s team – and in Messi, they have a player who will take a mile from every inch he is offered. Switzerland have given England a theoretical blueprint for beating the reigning champions. Actually doing it is a different matter.