The expensive Aston Villa transfer gamble which could make or break season

Aston Villa’s tumultuous summer, marked by high-profile departures and a string of injuries, could still reach its nadir before transfer deadline day – with striker Ollie Watkins reportedly pushing for a lucrative move to Saudi Arabian side Al-Hilal.

The departure of Watkins would represent another appalling blow for a side who have lurched towards crisis club status within months of winning a major European trophy, and would leave Tammy Abraham and teenager Brian Madjo as their only recognised strikers. Ahead of the opening weekend, there are injury concerns about both.

Manager Unai Emery admitted in his Friday press conference that Watkins could leave Villa Park, although the club are keen to hang on to their record goalscorer if they can. Should he leave, a replacement would be an unquestioned requirement – and according to new reports, they may already have identified their preferred target: Unwanted Chelsea forward Nicolas Jackson.

Will Aston Villa sign Nicolas Jackson this summer?

Rumours that Aston Villa had Jackson in mind as a potential replacement for Watkins started circulating during the week, and were apparently confirmed by The Daily Telegraph on Friday, with the broadsheet claiming that Chelsea were expecting an offer for a player they value at around £65m.

The 25-year-old striker scored 30 goals in 80 appearances for Chelsea across two full seasons before he was loaned to Bayern Munich for the 2025/26 campaign. In Germany, he spent most of the season stuck on the bench backing up Harry Kane, but scored a respectable 11 goals in 34 games, many of them as a substitute.

Chelsea spent a reported £32m to sign Jackson from Villarreal in 2023, but his inconsistent finishing frustrated fans and the club’s management, resulting in his being made available for sale.

The Blues are keen to find a buyer for Jackson but their high asking price, a reflection of the fact that he still has five years left on his eight-year contract, has dissuaded potential suitors until now. Aston Villa could just be desperate enough to cough up.

The biggest barrier to a move, aside from the cost, could be Atlético Madrid. The Spanish side are in the process of negotiating with Chelsea for a loan deal, but that may not present a particularly significant problem – Chelsea will prioritise a permanent deal if they can, and Atlético seem unlikely to spend enough up front to do such a deal.

Aston Villa are looking at alternative options but all stories emerging from Villa Park suggest that Jackson is the first choice should they be compelled to sell Watkins – but is it a risky move, given his past form in the Premier League?

Signing Jackson would be a risk - but the stats offer cause for cautious optimism

Jackson’s weaknesses as a striker have been discussed at great length since he moved to England. He missed a high volume of chances with Chelsea, scoring his 24 Premier League goals from 30.98xG’s worth of opportunities. He is not a precise finisher, can grow frustrated (and frustrating) when he isn’t at his best, and can be expected to miss the mark in crucial moments.

That was enough to persuade Chelsea to move on despite the fact that only Cole Palmer scored more frequently over the course of his two full seasons at Stamford Bridge. Jackson may have missed an awful lot of good chances, but he will still hitting the back of the net at a healthy rate.

His very high total xG over those two seasons reflects the Senegal international’s ability to create his own chances. His combination of rapid acceleration and sharp off-ball movement meant that he was able to get in behind defences with great suddenness. Had he been a better finisher, he would have been a huge hit – but he was still capable of punishing aggressive defensive lines.

In many ways, the means by which Jackson attempts to attack defences is quite similar to the way Watkins does so, which would at least suggest a relatively seamless transition from a tactical standpoint. The question is whether he would be able to play more consistently than he did during his first stint in the Premier League.

The data from his loan spell at Bayern Munich is somewhat limited. Unable to get regular minutes in a team which had Kane, he started just 12 Bundesliga matches. Encouragingly, however, he was finishing more sharply than he had before – his eight league goals came from 7.26xG, a distinct improvement.

If he had scored as reliably at Chelsea, he would have had around 34 goals across two years in the league alone. Watkins scored 35 in the same period. There is at least an argument which can be made with the stats which suggests that he has a high ceiling.

The issue, of course, is that while there is potential and while his playing style would likely be a good fit for Emery’s system, he would still be replacing the best goalscorer that Villa have had in the Premier League era. You can make a case for Jackson becoming a player that can replicate Watkins’ scoring record, but it’s a projection based on data rather than provable fact.

Is the improved finishing he demonstrated at Bayern Munich sustainable? Could he score as reliably across an entire season? There is some data to hint at the possibility, but no hard evidence and no demonstrable track record of long-term success. Signing Jackson to replace Watkins could work out – but it’s a definite gamble, and an expensive one at that.